Wow, what a Week 6! The Giants, Redskins and Cowboys all go down in upset fashion, the Bears blow their third fourth-quarter lead of the season in an unfathomable way, and I lost a fantasy game by .19 points when my quarterback and defense combined for -1.92 points. But, at least I’ve got two 5-1 teams sitting in first place at the present moment, and somehow Chicago is tied for first in the NFC North despite injuries and inconsistency on defense. Now for the fantasy stuff…

 

Aaron Rodgers has three 1-yard touchdown runs this season. Ryan Grant has zero. In fact, Grant has yet to score a touchdown through six games, a disturbing trend considering where Grant fell in fantasy drafts. If Rodgers is going to be punching in touchdowns from the goal-line with a separated shoulder, there’s pretty much nothing to keep him from doing so as long as he’s upright. Meanwhile, owners can be happy about the 173 yards Grant has racked up the last two weeks, but I’m concerned about his yards per carry. Since going for 7.7 yards per jaunt in Week 1, Grant has averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. So unless he’s going to get 33 carries each game like he did against the Seahawks – which will run him into the ground by Week 10, by the way – Grant is simply not going to have fantasy value unless for some reason Mike McCarthy starts calling his number by the goal line. And after playing the Colts next week he’s got a bye, then at Tennessee and at Minnesota before a home game against Chicago. So pretty much expect to go without Grant for the next month.

 

Staying in the NFC North, Bernard Berrian has absolutely become an every-week starter. He’s averaged 99.5 yards per game in his last four, has 16 catches in his last three, and two touchdowns in his last two games. Bobby Wade is getting more looks from Gus Frerrote – making him a useful third receiver in deep PPR leagues, by the way (6.3 catches for 70 yards per game in his last three) – but Berrian is a guy that is hot right now and has a great chance of lighting up the secondary of his former team in Chicago next week.

 

Were you able to buy low on Andre Johnson after four weeks? If not, your window has slammed shut after 19 catches for 309 yards and two touchdowns in a two-week stretch. Yikes!

 

Meanwhile, your time to sell Eddie Royal high has come and gone. Not only was he hurt last week, but Darrell Jackson is now back and Brandon Stokley has 16 catches and two touchdowns the last three weeks. Jay Cutler’s suddenly got a lot of mouths to feed, meaning Royal is going to be inconsistent for fantasy owners from here on out unless injuries happen elsewhere.

 

T.J. Houshmandzadeh owners NOT in PPR leagues have reason to worry. Sure, PPR owners are likely to see production drop as well, but at least Ryan Fitzpatrick has Housh on his radar. There is talk of Carson Palmer possibly needing surgery on his elbow, which would leave Fitzpatrick under center the rest of the season. Housh has 13 catches for 99 yards in the two games Fitzpatrick has played this season, but no touchdowns in either. Needless to say, he’s probably not going to perform up to his second- or third- round potential the rest of the way is Palmer is done.

 

Did you stay away from the Tampa Bay backfield in drafts? If so, you’re likely happy at this point as Warrick Dunn and Earnest Graham continue to battle it out, with Carnell Williams not far away from joining the fight. Graham has just 70 rushing yards the last two weeks, but he also has 68 receiving and a touchdown. Dunn, meanwhile, hasn’t scored a touchdown in four weeks but has been the leading rusher the last two. Sure, these numbers have kept BOTH runners fantasy relevant, but its tough to say who will have the better digits each week and it will get even more murky when Cadillac is back. That’s just not a fun game to play.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Notes

September 23, 2008

With Week 3 now in the bank, we can now begin drawing a few conclusions based on some early trends. The big conclusion one fantasy league has caused me to draw is to trust my brain, not my gut. Despite having Michael Turner ranked higher than Jamal Lewis and Philip Rivers ranked higher than Matt Schaub, I ended up with Lewis and Schaub on my squad when the other player was still on the board at the time. So, I guess the lesson there is to trust your work when you actually take the time to do it rather than make rash decisions based more on perceived value of players by the masses. But, at least Schaub is on my bench with Jay Cutler tearing it up. I can’t say the same for my RB situation…

 

The biggest trends I like to look at involved defenses – who is giving up what to who. Let’s take a look at a handful of defenses and see what conclusions we can draw:

 

I’ll start with Buffalo. The surprising Bills are 3-0 and a legit contender in the AFC East. Part of the reason for this success lies on the defensive side of the football. Buffalo has given up just one touchdown to a running back this season and feature backs are averaging less than 50 yards per game on the ground through three games. The passing defense has also been good, giving up just a hair over 170 yards per game and only two scores in three contests. However, I’m more sold on the run ‘D’ than the pass ‘D.’ Seattle has proven its ability to run the ball the last two weeks with Julius Jones (I definitely didn’t see that coming), Oakland can pretty much ONLY run the ball, and Jacksonville’s got arguably the best one-two running back punch in the game. Its to the point now where if I’ve got a borderline starter – Edgerrin James in Week 5, for example, he’s not getting in my lineup. The jury is still out on the pass, though. JaMarcus Russell is awful so far, and Matt Hasselbeck had just Nate Burleson to throw to in Week 1. Plus Jacksonville’s not exactly an aerial assault waiting to happen.

 

On the other end of the spectrum, I’m starting anyone and everyone against the Lions. A non-feature back has scored in all three games thus far, and Detroit has ceded six rushing touchdowns overall. That’s not to mention the 123+ yards per game feature backs are averaging against the Lions. Matt Forte owners should be licking their chops for Week 5…

 

As for pass defenses, Tennessee has been the cream of the crop thus far with just one touchdown pass allowed and seven interceptions. The talent the Titans have faced at quarterback can be questioned some, but besides a couple of meetings with a hobbled Peyton Manning, old Brett Favre, new Aaron Rodgers and ordinary Derek Anderson, Tennessee simply doesn’t face much that they can’t handle. In short, this team will continue to be a fantasy force that can score points any week.

 

The Colts fall into the mirage end of this equation, giving up just 149 passing yards per game without a touchdown allowed through three weeks. But I’m not giving Indy a ton of credit for shutting down Kyle Orton and Tarvaris Jackson. David Garrard is a little better, but the Jags were simply too good on the ground in this one. If the Colts continue to put up good numbers against the pass, its only because they are having so much trouble against the run that no one even tries to pass. I expect Schaub, Rodgers, Kerry Collins, Ben Roethlisberger, Rivers, et al to have a bit more success in the coming weeks.

 

An under-the-radar iffy pass defense resides in Denver, where the Broncos are giving up 326 yards and two scores per game through three weeks despite being undefeated. Those numbers would be even more inflated if not for the Raiders being included among Denver’s three opponents. Tyler Thigpen likely won’t do much next week, but after that you could probably use Brian Griese, Garrard or even Matt Cassell in the coming weeks as emergency starters should you need one.

 

That’s enough defense for now, I feel like ragging on the Lions. Jon Kitna is getting progressively worse, and Roy Williams has yet to be good. Sure, he caught a touchdown pass in Week 1, but there is plenty to be worried about here. Roy is catching fewer than three balls per game and has yet to hit the 50-yard mark while Calvin Johnson is emerging as the top target in Detroit. Williams has been a must-start receiver the last few years, but if Roy doesn’t do something against Chicago and Minnesota out of the bye week, he’s simply no longer on that list.